Climate Scenario Analysis
Climate Scenario Analysis Software for Climate Risk and Resilience
Climate Scenario Analysis helps organizations assess how different plausible climate futures could affect their operations, assets, value chain, financial performance, strategy, and business model.
EcoActive connects climate scenarios with physical and transition risks, assumptions, time horizons, business exposure, supporting evidence, and disclosure — helping reporting teams turn scenario analysis into a governed and traceable climate-risk process.
What Is Climate Scenario Analysis?
Climate Scenario Analysis is a forward-looking assessment used to understand how a business could perform under different plausible climate-related conditions. It is not a prediction of exactly what will happen.
Instead, it tests the organization against different possible futures to answer a more useful question:
How resilient is our business if climate conditions, regulation, technology, energy markets, or the economy develop differently from today?
PHYSICAL CLIMATE RISK
What Happens as the Physical Climate Changes?
Physical risks arise from climate-related hazards and longer-term changes in climate conditions. These can include:
- Flooding
- Storms
- Wildfires
- Drought
- Heatwaves
- Rising temperatures
- Changing rainfall patterns
- Water stress
- Sea-level rise
Physical climate risks can affect assets, facilities, business continuity, supply chains, resources, and operating costs.
TRANSITION CLIMATE RISK
What Happens as the Economy Transitions?
Transition risks arise as economies move toward lower-carbon models. They can result from changes in:
- Climate regulation
- Carbon pricing
- Energy systems
- Technology
- Consumer behaviour
- Markets
- Litigation
- Industry expectations
IFRS S2 & ESRS E1 | CLIMATE SCENARIO ANALYSIS
What Do the Standards Require?
Climate scenario analysis is addressed by both IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures and ESRS E1 Climate Change.
The requirements differ.
IFRS S2 requires climate-related scenario analysis to inform the assessment of climate resilience, using an approach commensurate with the organization's circumstances.
Under revised ESRS E1-2 — Identification of Climate-related Risks and Scenario Analysis, organizations identify and assess physical and transition climate risks. Where scenario analysis is used, the standard requires information about the scenarios, scope, assumptions, and timing of the analysis.
Classify Climate Risks
Assess Exposure
Assess Different Time Horizons
Select Relevant Scenarios
Document Assumptions
Assess Climate Resilience
What Are You Assessing Against?
| Climate Risk Area | Examples | Potential Business Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Acute physical risk | Flood · Storm · Wildfire · Heatwave | Asset damage · Operational disruption |
| Chronic physical risk | Rising temperature · Water stress · Sea-level rise | Resource constraints · Asset exposure |
| Policy and legal risk | Carbon pricing · Climate regulation | Compliance costs · Investment requirements |
| Technology risk | New energy systems · Low-carbon technologies | Asset obsolescence · New capital needs |
| Market risk | Energy prices · Customer demand · Commodity shifts | Revenue · Costs · Market position |
| Reputation risk | Climate commitments · Stakeholder expectations | Brand · Customers · Capital access |
HOW IT WORKS
Climate Scenario Analysis: Step by Step
A scenario only becomes useful when its assumptions can be connected with real business exposure.
1. Define the Scope
2. Identify Relevant Climate Risks
3. Select Scenarios
4. Define Time Horizons
5. Define Assumptions and Variables
6. Assess Exposure and Sensitivity
7. Assess Resilience
8. Document the Analysis
How EcoActive Structures Climate Scenario Analysis
Scenario analysis can quickly become fragmented across climate models, spreadsheets, risk registers, locations, assumptions, and supporting files. EcoActive brings these components into the same governed reporting environment.
Scenario Management
Maintain scenarios together with their sources, pathways, variables, assumptions, and time horizons.
Physical Risk Assessment
Assess exposure to climate-related physical hazards across relevant business activities and locations.
Transition Risk Assessment
Assess exposure to policy, regulatory, technological, market, and other transition developments.
Business Exposure Mapping
Locations & Entities
Dynamic Parameters
Ensure transparent assumptions and dynamic parameters so reviewers can understand the calculations and how input changes affect scenario results.
Scenario Comparison
and time horizons.
How Climate Scenario Analysis Connects to Disclosure
| Scenario Analysis Element | Reporting Connection |
|---|---|
| Climate hazards | Physical climate risk |
| Transition events | Transition climate risk |
| Time horizons | Short-, medium- and long-term exposure |
| Scenario assumptions | Methodology |
| Business exposure | Climate-related risks |
| Scenario results | Climate resilience |
| Supporting evidence | Review and assurance |
| Conclusions | ESG and climate disclosure |
This creates a connected path:
Scenario → Climate Risk → Exposure → Business Effect → Resilience → Disclosure
Why EcoActive for Climate Scenario Analysis?
01
Built Around Climate Disclosure
EcoActive connects scenarios with risks, assumptions, exposure, supporting evidence, and reporting requirements rather than leaving scenario analysis as a standalone modelling exercise.
02
Physical and Transition Risk in One Process
Assess physical and transition risks across different scenarios and time horizons while maintaining the context behind each assessment.
03
Defensible From Assumption to Disclosure
Maintain scenario sources, assumptions, methodologies, evidence, reviews, and disclosure connections so teams can explain how climate conclusions were reached.
As an AI-native Financial and ESG Disclosure Management platform, EcoActive keeps AI within governed reporting workflows while maintaining human review and accountability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Climate Scenario Analysis?
Climate Scenario Analysis is a forward-looking assessment that evaluates how an organization could be affected under different plausible climate futures. It helps companies understand climate risk and assess the resilience of their strategy and business model.
Is Climate Scenario Analysis the same as forecasting?
No. Forecasting generally estimates a likely future outcome. Climate Scenario Analysis explores multiple plausible futures to understand uncertainty, risk exposure, and potential business effects.
Does IFRS S2 require Climate Scenario Analysis?
Yes. IFRS S2 requires an entity to use climate-related scenario analysis to inform its assessment of climate resilience. The approach should be commensurate with the organization’s circumstances. Learn more from the IFRS Foundation’s IFRS S2 guidance.
What does ESRS E1 say about Climate Scenario Analysis?
Revised ESRS E1 requires organizations to identify and assess physical and transition climate risks. Where climate-related scenario analysis is used, organizations disclose information about the scenarios, scope, assumptions, and timing of the analysis.
What is the difference between physical and transition climate risk?
Physical climate risks result from climate-related hazards and longer-term changes in climate conditions. Transition risks arise from regulatory, policy, technological, market, and economic changes associated with the shift toward a lower-carbon economy.
What data is used in Climate Scenario Analysis?
Inputs depend on the organization and the risks being assessed. They may include asset locations, climate hazards, temperature pathways, carbon prices, energy use, energy mix, policy assumptions, technology changes, and macroeconomic variables.
What are RCP climate scenarios?
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories defined by the IPCC, ranging from RCP2.6 (low emissions) to RCP8.5 (high emissions), used to model physical climate impacts and support climate-risk analysis
How does EcoActive support Climate Scenario Analysis?
EcoActive structures climate scenarios, assumptions, physical and transition risks, business exposure, evidence, review, and disclosure connections within a governed reporting environment.
Ready to Understand Your Climate Resilience?
evidence, and disclosure in one structured process.
